Mayo 2018
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US bear raid on gold and its journey East - FAST NEWS - Mineweb

consumer market is increasingly becoming a battleground of retailers vying for market share, whereas consumer demand is growing at a very rapid pace in emerging markets. Inflation-adjusted (real) consumer spending growth in the United States has averaged 2.1% since the Great Recession (December 2007June 2009) ended, while real consumer spending growth in India was above 7% each year from 2006 to 2009, and has been above 3.5% each year since. The real consumption in China has been growing at an even faster pace of more than 8% every year during 200609, and above 5.5% annually ever since. Even though the U.S. consumer still reigns supreme in total and per-capita spending, growth in U.S. G.D.P. and consumer spending is being eclipsed by that in emerging markets, most notably Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Since 2007, the global economy has entered a transitional phase where Chinese and Indian consumers are more prominent in the international trade picture. U.S. consumption as a percentage of worlds G.D.P. peaked at approximately 22% in 2001, and has declined steadily since then. Consumer spending in Western Europe reached almost 18% of world G.D.P. in 2004 and has since fallen at roughly the same pace. IHS Global Consumer Markets econometric model predicts that, combined, U.S. and Western European consumer spending will account for only 26.7% of world G.D.P. by 2015, down considerably from 38.4% in 2002. Meanwhile, BRIC consumer spending was 8.0% of world G.D.P. in 2010, after averaging 4.4% from 1995 through 2005, and its share is projected to approach 10.5% by 2015. While the Great Recession, the Eurozone debt debacle, and anemic growth in Europe and the United States may have kicked off this process, strong underlying demographic and economic forces drive it. Prior to the Great Recession, real consumer spending in the United States had peaked in the fourth quarter of 2007, at $9.3 trillion. Over the course of the deep downturn, consumer expenditures experienced the largest decline in a generation. Real consumption dropped $313.3 billion from peak to trough, hitting a low of $9.0 trillion in the second quarter of 2009. It took US consumer spending three full years to regain its prerecession peak. Western Europe has yet to match its pre-recession peak, and it may be some time before it does, given that the region is on the brink of another recession. Consumer spending is approximately 70% of U.S. G.D.P., while it accounts for slightly less than 58% of Western European G.D.P. Pre-recession Peak Western Europe has yet to match its prerecession peak, and it may be some time before it does, given that the region is on the brink of another recession. Consumer spending is approximately 70% of US GDP, while it accounts for slightly less than 58% of Western European GDP. China's consumption to GDP ratio is low, at 34.5%, whereas Indias is one of the highest in the developing world, on a par with Western Europe. Foreign trade (imports plus exports) has been playing a smaller role in the BRIC countries, but a more significant role for Western Europe and the United States as they try to promote higher export growth to enhance their economic options in the face of weakening domestic consumer demand. In the past, the developed economies depended on consumers spending more by increasing their debt and saving less to spur economic growth. During the 2011 National People's Congress of China, Beijing was very clear that one of its top priorities was to have domestic consumption play a stronger role in the economy, rather than relying heavily on exports and investment to generate growth. In addition, the Indian government is still struggling with the process of opening up its domestic market to foreign multi-brand stores. Why is this Important to Precious Metal Investors? 1) Because the Asian emerging middle classes believe that physical gold is an important permanent asset in their savings. In China the government encourages this thinking too. 2) The approximate total of Asian middle-classes (Indonesia and other Asian nations included) is greater in numbers that the combined total population of the U.S.A. and Eurozone. 3) The global monetary system will change from one based on the USD to a multi-currency system including the Chinese Yuan, who will walk its own road and not be dictated to by the U.S. or the rest of the developed world.

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